venerdì, febbraio 08, 2013

Agenzie di rating

 Non ci sono solo le solite 3 agenzie di rating del debito, peraltro pagate da chi controllano, a valutare il rischio

C'è anche Dagong, cinese, privata. 

Può essere interessante leggere le motivazioni dell'ultima valutazione del debito italiano. L'inglese lo conosco men che elementare , dunque non traduco. Anche se come esercizio sarebbe meglio del solito the apple is on the table.
Non che i giudizi siano molto diversi da quelli delle altre agenzie, almeno per l'Italia. Ma per altri paesi un tantino diverse lo sono.


Dagong Maintains the Sovereign Credit Ratings of Italy as BBB with Negative Outlook

Time:2013-01-15 Source:dagong Editor: Print Font Size: Big Normal Small Click Rate:73
Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Dagong”) decides to maintain the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings of the Republic of Italy (hereinafter referred to as “Italy”) as BBB each with a negative outlook. In Dagong’s evaluation, the Italian economy will continue with the recession influenced by the adverse external conditions and persistent domestic fiscal austerity, and the stability of the banking sector will be facing challenges, but no significant deterioration happens to the government’s solvency level as the increase in the government debt burden is relatively slow and the government is supported by unconventional monetary policy tools from the European Central Bank (ECB).
The reasons for maintaining the sovereign credit ratings of Italy are as follows:
1. The divergence in the parliament will possibly be intensified after the general election in February 2013, which will slow down the implementation of stringent fiscal austerity and economic structural reform measures under the Monti government. The fiscal austerity of the Monti government includes various measures in taxes increases, spending cut and pension reform, and its economic reforms deal with rigid labor market, absence of competitions in the service sector and high employment costs for enterprises. After the general election in February 2013, though the policy direction towards fiscal austerity and economic reforms will not change, the intensified divergence in the parliament will impair the implementation of the above policies.
2. Under the fiscal austerity and unfavorable external environment, the Italian economy will stay in recession and remain depressed. Against the background of fiscal austerity and continuous brewing of the European debt crisis, it is estimated that the economy will contract by 2.6% in 2012, down by 3 percentage points over the previous year. As the fiscal austerity continues and the European debt crisis can hardly see a significant favorable change, the Italian economy will stay in recession in 2013 and the decline is projected to be 1.6%. Considering the prolonged rectification of the structural problems and the weakened domestic and foreign demand caused by the widely implemented fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, the Italian economy will be trapped into a long-term downturn with occasional recession.
3. With the ECB’s support, the liquidity pressure in the banking sector has been alleviated, but the declining asset quality caused by the continuous economic recession becomes the main threat to the banking system’s stability. The Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) of the ECB and stable retail funding help alleviate the banks’ liquidity pressure. However, the economic recession has caused a substantial decline in the banking system’s asset quality, and the nonperforming loan ratio has climbed to as high as 12.3%. This deterioration not only threatens the banking system’s stability, but also confronts the government with increasing pressure of its contingent liabilities.
4. The fiscal austerity has reduced the fiscal deficit to a certain extent, but the huge debt burden will hardly be trimmed down in the medium term. Under the stringent fiscal austerity measures of the Monti government, the general government fiscal deficit rate in 2012 is estimated to be 2.8%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year. Constrained by the sustained recession and policy uncertainty, the fiscal deficit in 2013 will not achieve the reduction target as planned but will stay around the rate of 2.0%, and a fiscal balance can hardly be restored in the medium term. Accordingly, the general government debt ratio is expected to rise to 126.5% and 128.2% respectively in 2012 and 2013, and remain at the high level in the medium term.
The future political uncertainty will have a negative effect on the process of fiscal austerity and economic reforms, and consequently the economic recession will not be reversed in the short term and the planned fiscal consolidation will be prolonged. Considering the still vulnerable market environment and huge government debt burden, the government’s solvency will stay on the descending trend. Therefore, Dagong maintains the negative outlook for both the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings of Italy in the next 1-2 years.

Nessun commento: